St. Joseph Community Partnership Fund

PolicyLink and PERE 106 An Equity Profile of Orange County Adjustments made to demographic projections On page 28, national projections of the non- Hispanic white share of the population are based on the U.S. Census Bureau's 2014 National Population Projections. However, because these projections follow the OMB 1997 guidelines on racial classification and essentially distribute the other single-race alone group across the other defined racial/ethnic categories, adjustments were made to be consistent with the six broad racial/ethnic groups used in our analysis. Specifically, we compared the percentage of the total population composed of each racial/ethnic group from the Census Bureau's Population Estimates program for 2016 (which follows the OMB 1997 guidelines) to the percentage reported in the 2016 ACS 1- year Summary File (which follows the 2000 Census classification). We subtracted the percentage derived using the 2016 Population Estimates program from the percentage derived using the 2016 ACS to obtain an adjustment factor for each group (all of which were negative except that for the Data and methods mixed/other group) and carried this adjustment factor forward by adding it to the projected percentage for each group in each projection year. Finally, we applied the resulting adjusted projected population distribution by race/ethnicity to the total projected population from the 2014 National Population Projections to get the projected number of people by race/ethnicity in each projection year. Similar adjustments were made in generating county and regional projections of the population by race/ethnicity. Initial county- level projections were taken from Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. Like the 1990 MARS file described above, the Woods & Poole projections follow the OMB Directive 15-race categorization, assigning all persons identifying as other or multiracial to one of five mutually exclusive race categories: white, Black, Latino, Asian American/Pacific Islander, or Native American. Thus, we first generated an adjusted version of the county-level Woods & Poole projections that removed the other or multiracial group from each of these five categories. This was done by comparing the Woods & Poole projections for 2010 to the actual results from SF1 of the 2010 Census, figuring out the share of each racial/ethnic group in the Woods & Poole data that was composed of other or mixed-race persons in 2010, and applying it forward to later projection years. From these projections, we calculated the county-level distribution by race/ethnicity in each projection year for five groups (white, Black, Latino, Asian American/Pacific Islander, and Native American), exclusive of other and mixed-race people. To estimate the county-level share of population for those classified as other or mixed race in each projection year, we then generated a simple straight-line projection of this share using information from SF1 of the 2000 and 2010 Census. Keeping the projected other or mixed-race share fixed, we allocated the remaining population share to each of the other five racial/ethnic groups by applying the racial/ethnic distribution implied by our adjusted Woods & Poole projections

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